Market Insights: Mar 25th, 2024

Stock Market and Financial Markets:

• Major Indices Open Lower: The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.25% lower at 3040.5 points; the Shenzhen Component Index opened 0.28% lower at 9538.35 points; the ChiNext Index opened 0.25% lower at 1864.53 points.
• US Stocks, Bonds, and Currency All Rise: The S&P and Dow Jones ended at record closing highs, while the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high on the third day and saw a weekly gain of nearly 2%.
• US Treasury Yields Fall: The yield on ten-year US Treasury notes hit a new low for the week, with the two-year yield dropping more than 10 basis points over the week.
• US Dollar Index Rises: The US Dollar Index reached a one-month high, the British Pound hit a one-month low, and the Japanese Yen, after reaching a four-month low, turned higher but still posted its biggest weekly drop in two months.
• Performance of Chinese Markets: During US stock trading hours, the Chinese concept stocks index fell nearly 2%, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks ending lower amid fluctuations; XPeng Motors dropped nearly 8%.

Industry Sector Performance:

• Sectors Leading the Decline: The breeding sector experienced a significant pullback, with brokers, coal, chips sectors leading the losses, followed by general declines in CPO, brain-computer interfaces, and ready-to-cook meals concepts.
• Sectors Remaining Active: The media industry continued to be active, with rises generally seen in Kimi, data elements, Chinese language databases, and short drama concepts.

Stock Performance:

• Brokerage Concept Stocks with Large Declines: As of 9:47, CITIC Securities fell more than 4%, with First Capital Securities, National United Securities, and CITIC Construction among others dropping more than 3%.

Currency Market:

• Offshore Yuan against the US Dollar: The offshore yuan continued to strengthen against the US dollar, breaking through 7.24 with an intraday gain of more than 350 points.
• Asian Currencies Fall: All Asian currencies fell, with analysis attributing this to the Swiss National Bank's unexpected rate cut.

International Politics and Terrorism Attacks:

• Terrorist Attack: A terrorist attack at a concert hall in Moscow, Russia, resulted in 137 deaths and 152 injuries. Putin declared March 24 as a national day of mourning; Ukraine denied involvement; the US and China strongly condemned the attack.

Financial Regulation and Policy:

• Financial Regulatory Policy: The National Financial Regulatory Administration requires banks and insurance institutions to implement the national big data strategy, promote the construction of data infrastructure, and lower the principle limit for the share of loans and distribution that a single bank can lead.

Company Performance and Outlook:

• Viewpoint from Former US Leaders: Former Federal Reserve leaders stated that they expect fewer rate cuts by the Fed this year than anticipated. Some dovish members even reduced the number of rate cuts to just one. They had differing views on Fed Chairman Powell's dovish stance this week, acknowledging that cooling inflation and a strong economy could allow for rate cuts, but also noting this might be more of a hope than an accurate prediction. The Atlanta Fed President anticipates only one rate cut by the Fed this year, possibly later than previously forecasted.
• Stock Buyback Expectations: Goldman Sachs expects US companies' stock buyback volume to grow by 13% to $925 billion this year, with a further 16% increase to $1.075 trillion by 2025.