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FxPro汇评:美联储的鸽派立场并未伤及美元

FxPro浦汇
FxPro浦汇
03-22

FxPro汇评:美联储的鸽派立场并未伤及美元

美联储维持其关键利率不变,对今年降息的预测保持不变,但它支持全球市场的风险偏好。该消息公布后,美元加速下跌,从峰值到低段下跌了约1%。美国三大股指均创历史新高,金价再至新高。

FxPro高级分析师Alex Kuptsikevich指出:鲍威尔表示,他对通胀前景的看法在最近几周没有改变,这令市场受到鼓舞。需要记得的是,在此期间,通胀报告高于预期,并对下行轨迹提出了质疑。

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另一个积极因素是消除了联邦公开市场委员会减少预期降息次数的风险。

另外一个积极因素是,美联储确认了此前宣布的从资产负债表上减少证券出售的计划。这将为金融体系增加一些流动性,从而支撑风险需求,尽管总体影响相对较小。

美元的反应与我们之前的预期一致。美联储温和的语气引发了美元的冲动抛售,DXY指数大幅跌破其200日和50日移动均线。

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正如预期的那样,正如我们在发布前所写的,鉴于过去几周形成的强劲技术图景,美元的下行势头看起来并不可持续。

从基本面角度来看,在其他央行准备效仿时,卖出美元并不容易。去年年底,有人猜测美联储将第一个放松政策,届时将削弱美元。然而,强劲的经济和劳动力市场已经公平了竞争环境。此外,SNB周四出人意料地降息25个基点,突显出欧洲放松降息的意愿。

世界各大央行预期的同步宽松政策,激发了买家对股市的兴趣。

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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