After news of Trump's reelection, the oil market had a poor start this week, with oil prices initially falling but quickly rebounding. Trump's reelection has refocused global attention on his hardline stance in the Middle East. Analysts generally believe this policy could exacerbate local conflicts and support future oil price increases.
On Monday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called on Israel to immediately cease military actions in Gaza and Lebanon during a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders, urging other countries to recognize Palestinian statehood. Trump's pro-Israel rhetoric and his stance threatening airstrikes on Iran have raised external concerns that the Middle East situation might further deteriorate during his administration. Iran, taking a cautious stance on Trump's reelection, urged him to avoid continuing the "maximum pressure" policy.
The instability in the Middle East poses a threat not only to regional security but also affects the critical global oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the world’s most important oil transport hub, accounting for over 60% of global oil flow. As a major driving force of oil demand growth, India is particularly concerned about the strait's accessibility. Should the strait be blocked or transport disrupted due to conflict, oil prices could soar: analyses suggest a block would raise oil prices by $28 per barrel; an Israeli attack on Iranian energy facilities could increase prices by $13 per barrel; and U.S. and allies imposing sanctions on Iran might lead to a $7 per barrel rise.
Despite India's recent increase in crude oil imports from Russia, the Middle East remains India's primary oil source. In August, Middle Eastern crude accounted for 44.6% of India's imports, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait being key suppliers. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for importing Middle Eastern oil to India, and its closure would significantly impact the Indian economy.
With Trump's return to the White House, Israel may become more audacious in Middle East policy, and future developments will depend on Iran's response to possible attacks from Israel. Analysts believe that ongoing turmoil in the Middle East could keep oil prices on an upward trend for some time.
