Gold Market:
Mark Spitznagel, the founder of the "Black Swan Fund," which excels at profiting from tail risks on Wall Street, recently stated that the U.S. stock market is entering a historic sell-off period. He warns that investors who have been comfortable with the steady rise of U.S. stocks amid the AI boom should take decisive action. He describes the recent rebound of U.S. stocks as "the biggest bubble in human history."
On Monday (July 22), Invesco released a survey covering 83 sovereign wealth funds and 53 central banks. The results show that approximately 83% of respondents consider geopolitical tensions their primary concern, while 73% list inflation as their main worry. This indicates that concerns about geopolitical risks currently outweigh inflation issues.
Technical Analysis: Yesterday (July 22), gold prices closed with a bearish doji star, significantly slowing the rapid decline trend since last week. The key question now is whether the bulls can hold the crucial $2,391 level.
Crude Oil Market:
The Federal Reserve reached peak interest rates last July. Data shows that the cost of purchasing a house, car, or borrowing via credit cards has reached the highest levels in decades. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, American consumers' total mortgage interest payments in 2023 increased by 14% compared to 2022, while credit card and auto loan interest saw a sharp 50% rise.
Morgan Stanley stated in its latest report that the tight global crude oil market will persist through most of the third quarter. This aligns with earlier predictions from the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, Morgan Stanley expects the global crude oil market to return to balance in the fourth quarter of this year, as seasonal excess demand ends and OPEC+ production cuts phase out.
Technical Analysis: Oil prices continued to decline yesterday, closing with a 0.46% drop. Similar to gold, the decline has tapered off, but the probability of oil prices halting their fall is lower. The $77.99 level serves as a crucial "Maginot Line" for the bulls.
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