As global agricultural market news keeps updating, futures prices for major agricultural products like soybeans and corn are continuously fluctuating. On October 14, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell below the $10 per bushel mark, hitting a new low for this month. Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for soybean production, the expectation of a bountiful harvest still dominated market sentiment, with U.S. soybean harvest anticipated to reach a historic high, intensifying the supply pressure and driving prices down.
The United States, as the world's second-largest soybean exporter, faces competitive pressure from countries like Brazil. Meanwhile, adjustments in speculators' positions and a decline in international buyer demand also contributed to the bearish market sentiment. Looking ahead, soybean prices may remain under pressure unless adverse weather conditions in major exporting countries tighten the supply chain to support prices.
At the same time, influenced by the decline in soybean prices, the futures prices for soybean meal and soybean oil have also made adjustments. Although soybean oil is supported by increased demand for biofuels, weak demand for soybean meal and uncertainty in global feed demand continue to exert pressure on the market. Speculators' adjustments in positions on soybean meal reflect a cautious attitude towards its future trend.
Wheat futures have been relatively stable, benefiting from Russia's export policy interventions. Russia has limited its wheat exports by setting minimum export prices and raising tariffs, prompting international buyers to turn to other suppliers, which supported wheat price increases. Meanwhile, production forecasts for Russia and other major exporting countries have been downgraded, further aggravating the supply shortage. However, with global inventory expectations rising, there is still the potential for a wheat price correction.
Corn futures prices continue to decline under the dual pressure of harvest expectations and excess supply. The U.S. corn harvest is anticipated to be the second largest in history, further curbing upward potential for prices. Market demand remains steady, with international buyers mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, failing to provide strong support for prices. In the near term, corn prices will continue to face downward pressure unless there is a significant increase in global demand, particularly from major importing countries like China.
Overall, the sentiment in the global futures market for major agricultural products is mostly bearish, with expectations of bountiful harvests and oversupply suppressing prices for commodities like soybeans and corn, although wheat finds some support due to Russian policy factors. Future trends will depend on further developments in global weather conditions, demand changes, and the dynamics of international purchases.
