Gold:
Last week, gold faced the test of the US May CPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, but it did not experience a significant decline.
Economic data is laying the groundwork for an early interest rate cut, but disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are becoming increasingly apparent. Two Federal Reserve officials who spoke after the blackout period had differing views on rate cuts: Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that although the data is encouraging, she still sees US inflation risks as skewed to the upside and believes a rate cut is appropriate.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, on the other hand, said that May's CPI is very good, making significant progress in reducing inflation. If inflation continues to ease, the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates and might entirely avoid an economic recession.
Technical Analysis: Gold ended the three-week losing streak with a positive weekly close. Last week, it fluctuated between $2295 and $2341. If it breaks above $2341, it could target the $2360-$2380 range, while support is seen at $2300.
Oil:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) both raised their forecasts for oil demand growth in 2024, predicting a strong global demand increase of 2.2 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) was relatively conservative, lowering this year's oil demand growth to 1 million barrels per day.
According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative net long positions in WTI crude increased by 42,488 contracts to 160,889 contracts as of the week ending June 11. Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that speculative net long positions in Brent crude increased by 26,008 contracts to 71,686 contracts, indicating strong market confidence in rising oil prices.
Technical Analysis: Oil continued its upward trend last week, with a bullish outlook and no signs of a peak. In the short term, it is oscillating between $77.60 and $79.30. If $77.60 holds, the probability of continued upward movement is high.
