Today, the joint surge in the gold and copper markets continues with strong momentum, indicating that the bullish trend in major non-ferrous commodities is still ongoing. Reports from last Friday indicate that the price of copper futures in Shanghai reached a new high in 18 years, while the international gold futures settlement price also hit a record $2,413 per ounce, refreshing historical records once again.
This persistent uptrend in gold and copper prices has drawn significant market attention. However, to avoid overheating in trading, domestic futures exchanges have recently implemented frequent risk control measures to tighten market trading activities and reduce market heat. Especially since April 12, a series of trading limits and other risk control measures for gold and copper futures have taken effect, keeping gold positions stable but transaction volume has fallen by over 40%. Copper positions and transaction volumes in Shanghai have remained essentially unchanged, not showing any further expansion tendencies.
It was noted that the main contract for copper futures in Shanghai reached a peak of 80,170 yuan per ton during last Friday's night session, marking a new high since 2006. Meanwhile, the London LME copper price also continued to hit new highs of nearly two years, closing at $9,874.50 per ton.
The rise in prices of gold and copper is partly attributed to the months-long pressure of tight supply in the copper industry chain. Additionally, domestic and foreign research institutions are generally optimistic about the price forecasts for gold, copper, and other resource commodities. Wang Zhaohua, an analyst at Everbright Securities, mentioned that the current supply tightness in the copper industry and the demand exceeding expectations in downstream fields have led copper prices to enter a high-price elasticity area, where slight demand changes could lead to rapid increases in copper prices.
However, as market trading activities tighten and risk management awareness increases, there's also been a decline in net long positions in the international market. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of April 16, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures significantly decreased to 183,000 hands, while COMEX gold net long positions also hit a three-week low.
Regarding the future price trend of gold and copper, some institutions maintain a cautious attitude, predicting that high-level fluctuations may occur. Guosen Futures research warns that the volatility of precious metal prices will mainly be influenced by fluctuating risk-aversion sentiments. However, in the long term, the value of holding precious metals like gold and silver remains prominent, especially under the resonance of risk-aversion sentiments and market expectations for interest rate cuts.
Amid the hot gold and copper futures markets, the performance of various funds linked to futures products differs. Theme funds linked to gold-related listed company stocks have shown significant gains, leading the entire market's ETFs. For investors, it's crucial to closely monitor market trends and cautiously assess risks to seize investment opportunities.
