Index Direction:
The index saw a slight rise, with more stocks up than down. Today's trend was expected pre-market, but with some deviations. The pre-market expectation was for a deeper decline, followed by a significant rebound. Intraday, there was minimal morning decline and afternoon ascent. Two possibilities arise: either today is a rebound, followed by a continued downturn in the second half of the week, breaking below 2855 points on Thursday or Friday, leading to a medium-to-long-term bottom. Alternatively, there could be a continued minor rebound, with a prolonged period of consolidation in this range.
Be prepared for either scenario.
Post-holiday, high dividend-yield stocks remain strong, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, favoring sectors with high valuation, low volatility, and low risk.
When will high-volatility, high-growth sectors bottom out? Overall market preference needs to rise for a genuine market rally.
Short-Term Sentiment:
Changbaishan (6 boards), Dalian Sainty (5 boards), and Sijin Intelligent (4 boards) showed strong performance. On Tuesday, Changbaishan and Dalian Sainty accelerated, benefiting from the index's rebound and lifting the entire tourism sector. True leaders emerge from sectors and later act independently. Currently, Changbaishan remains a sector leader with limited impact on overall sentiment and a capped limit to consecutive boards.
Exercise caution when chasing stocks during this time, as continuous board relays should be avoided if the momentum cannot be sustained.
Sector Overview:
Tourism and Hotels: The entire tourism sector, driven by the ice and snow industry, experienced a surge. First boards were seen in Green Ecological and strong gains in ZTE Commercial and Dalian Friendship, combining Northeastern and retail aspects. Snowmaking equipment manufacturers like Tianqiao Heavy Industry saw a boost.
Traveling requires outdoor gear, leading to notable increases in textile and clothing stocks like Zhejiang Nature.
Transportation is essential when traveling; aviation, airports, railways, and roads also performed well.
After a comprehensive sector rally, attention should shift to core stocks, anticipating differentiation.
Intelligent Machines: The early morning witnessed a significant rise in intelligent machines, with more than 10 stocks, including Aishida, Jingshan Light Machine, Baisheng Intelligent, Xinshida, Taihe Intelligent, and Yuhuan CNC, hitting the limit, led by Aishida.
Positive news on the robotics front, along with global and Hong Kong tech rebounds, contributed to this rise.
Controllable Nuclear Fusion: A late surge in this sector was observed, with Dongfang Precision and Hongxun Technology hitting the limit.
This seems to be a self-rescue action by previously invested funds.
New Energy: Active intraday trading was seen in Aikang Technology and Jingshan Light Machine.
This sector dipped before the index and stabilized before the index. This might be related to institutional low-positioning.
Photovoltaics and lithium batteries may not reverse in 2024, but stock prices could outperform the index. Consider active long-term investment during market downturns.
Real Estate: The sector saw a minor increase today, but Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced a significant decline, possibly affecting the A-share real estate sector.
Investors' concerns are favorable for this sector, and any further sharp decline may attract off-market funds.
Like the current index, frequent positive news only delays the decline. A decisive break is awaited.
Summary:
Today's slight rebound increases the probability of a continued downturn. Maintain a moderate position (around 40%), ready to attack or defend. If the Shanghai Composite rebounds near the five-day moving average, consider reducing positions. If the downward trend continues, wait for a break on Thursday or Friday before increasing holdings.
