Early Market: Harris Becomes a Candidate, Trump Continues to Perform

Gold Market:

On Tuesday, July 23, U.S. Vice President Harris visited Wisconsin for her first campaign event as a presidential candidate. Since Biden announced his decision not to seek re-election last Sunday, Harris has effectively become the Democratic presidential candidate. According to an Associated Press survey, Harris will receive support from more than 2,500 party delegates, far exceeding the required 1,976.

As the Democrats change their presidential candidate, CME's FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rates unchanged in August, a 2.6% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut. By September, there is a 6.8% probability of maintaining the rate, a 90.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut, and a 2.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut.

With Harris becoming the Democratic candidate, a showdown with Trump is imminent.

Technical Analysis: Yesterday (July 23), gold prices slightly rose by 0.55%, ending a four-day losing streak. The market is now in a tug-of-war, and given that the MACD is above the zero axis, a bullish outlook is dominant.

Crude Oil Market:

At the invitation of China, various Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, held reconciliation talks in Beijing from July 21 to 23. On Tuesday morning, the closing ceremony of the internal reconciliation dialogue among Palestinian factions took place in Beijing. Representatives from 14 factions signed the "Beijing Declaration" to end divisions and strengthen Palestinian unity.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently stated that the Israeli military's large-scale evacuation order in the southern Gaza area of Khan Younis covers approximately 8.7 square kilometers and has reduced the so-called "humanitarian zone" area in Mawasi west of Khan Younis by 15%. As of the 22nd, nearly 83% of Gaza has received evacuation orders or been designated as "no-go zones" by the Israeli army.

Efforts for reconciliation and bloodshed juxtapose sharply.

Technical Analysis: Oil prices continued to decline yesterday, with a daily loss of 0.98%. The daily chart's moving average system has formed a death cross, and the MACD quickly diverged below the zero axis, indicating strong bearish momentum. In terms of strategy, shorting on rallies is a reasonable choice.

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