Market Review
Key News
China Market
1. In the first 9 months, China's urban employment increased by 10.22 million people
Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security spokesperson and Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office, Chen Feng, announced that from January to September, by implementing policies such as temporary reductions in unemployment and work injury insurance rates, job stabilization returns, and one-time expansion of job subsidies, businesses were able to reduce costs by 141.9 billion yuan and 80.9 billion yuan were spent on employment subsidies. From January to September, China witnessed a net increase of 10.22 million in urban employment, reemployment of 3.96 million unemployed persons, and employment of 1.29 million people facing difficulties. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.0%.
2. Ningbo, Zhejiang pilots a residence permit-to-household registration system
According to the Ningbo City Public Security Bureau in Zhejiang Province, starting November 24th, the city will further relax household registration admission requirements and will be the first in Zhejiang Province to pilot a residence permit-to-household registration system. This new policy is designed to further optimize the city's household registration migration policy, attract more people to Ningbo for employment and entrepreneurship, and aid in the high-quality economic and social development of Ningbo. Under this system, anyone who has continuously resided and registered in the urban area of the city for 3 years with a Zhejiang Province residence permit can apply for household registration in Ningbo.
3. Beijing's housing market remains low after consecutive stimuli
Following the first month's frenzy after abandoning the recognition of housing but not loans, the "Golden September and Silver October" market sentiment has mainly cooled down. Looking at the quarterly transactions, the Beijing secondary housing market showed a continuous downward trend from high to low in the first three quarters of the year. The first quarter saw a surge in transactions due to the release of pent-up housing demand, reaching a peak in nearly two years of quarterly transactions. However, as the market's recovery lost momentum, the sentiment remained cool, and transactions continued to decline in the second and third quarters. Data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, 34,940 units of second-hand residential properties were transacted in Beijing, a 9.3% decrease from the previous quarter.
Overseas Market
1. Arab countries issue a joint statement condemning Israel
CCTV News cited "The Times of Israel" reporting that the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, and Morocco - nine Arab countries issued a joint statement calling for the immediate passage of a draft resolution by the United Nations Security Council for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. The joint statement condemned Israel for killing civilians in Gaza, saying "self-defense cannot be an excuse for violating international law and deliberately ignoring the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
2. US records its fastest GDP growth in nearly two years in Q3
Driven by a surge in consumer spending, the US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter. Data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the real GDP of the US in the third quarter increased by an annualized rate of 4.9% quarter-on-quarter, doubling the previous quarter's growth of 2.1% and exceeding market expectations of 4.7%. The increase in consumer spending led to the overall economic growth rate, with consumer spending growing by 4% year-on-year, the highest increase since 2021. The growth in service spending was the largest in two years, while good spending also accelerated.
3. The European Central Bank finally hits pause on rate hikes
The European Central Bank (ECB) pressed the pause button on interest rate hikes as expected, indicating that the current interest rates are at a restrictive level that will further curb demand, thereby helping to reduce inflation. The latest interest rate decision by the European Central Bank keeps the three main ECB interest rates unchanged, maintaining the main refinancing rate, the deposit facility rate, and the marginal lending rate at historical highs of 4.5%, 4%, and 4.75%, respectively. Since ending a period of negative interest rates lasting eight years in July of last year, the ECB has raised interest rates ten times in succession, accumulating a rate hike of 450 basis points, marking the fastest pace of monetary tightening in its history.
4. US Treasury Secretary Yellen says rising Treasury yields reflect economic resilience
Recently, many bond market participants have pointed out that the sharp increase in the US federal deficit is a key reason for the long-term rise in Treasury yields. The current Treasurer and former Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, stated that the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields is not largely related to the fiscal deficit, but rather, the increase in yields reflects the robustness of the US economy, with most developed economies currently facing upward trends in national debt yields. Yellen's latest stance does not fully align with recent explanations provided by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the surge in long-term Treasury yields.
Focus Today
Today, investors should keep an eye on Germany's retail sales, US personal spending, the PCE price index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index among other economic data. In addition, investors should also pay close attention to the situation in Israel and Palestine and speeches by Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr among other risk events.
