CBOT's position data on October 30 indicates that volatility risk in the global grain market is accumulating. Commodity funds have increased speculative net longs in soybeans and wheat, reflecting strong market expectations for soybean export demand and uncertainty in winter wheat supply. Meanwhile, the corn market faces pressure from harvest season progress, with an increase in speculative net shorts, indicating concerns about short-term price declines.
Soybean Market Shines, Supported by Exports
CBOT data shows a significant increase in speculative net long positions in soybeans, reflecting investors' bullish outlook on future soybean prices. The USDA reports large sales of soybeans to China and other destinations for the 2024/25 marketing year, boosting market demand. On October 30, CBOT soybean contract prices rose to $9.76-1/2 per bushel. Analysts point out that global demand for soybeans, particularly amid overall growth in oilseed market demand, will support soybean prices in the short term. Additionally, the recovery in the crude oil market has boosted demand for soybean oil, leading to an upward trend in soybean oil prices as well.
Wheat Market Focuses on Drought and Supply Chain Risks
The wheat market is also attracting attention, with CBOT wheat position data indicating an increase in speculative net longs. This week, the USDA reported that only 38% of winter wheat is in good condition, below the market expectation of 47%, with drought presenting severe planting challenges. With rising international procurement demand, such as Jordan's recent purchase of 120,000 tons of wheat, wheat prices remain high driven by global demand. The main wheat contract price closed at $5.73-1/4 per bushel on October 30. Analysts believe that supply chain pressure and drought risks will not be fully alleviated in the short term, possibly continuing to support high wheat prices.
Corn Market Stressed, Harvest Progress and International Demand Affect Prices
The corn market is affected by supply pressure from the harvest season, with an increase in CBOT corn net shorts. Despite a rise in corn positions over the past 30 days, harvest progress is pressuring short-term prices. USDA data shows significant growth in corn harvested this week, leading to increased supply and price pressure. The main CBOT corn contract fell to $4.11-1/2 per bushel. However, demand from the Asian market provides some price support, as demonstrated by Korea's purchase of 65,000 tons of feed corn on October 30, showing potential growth in the region. Additionally, the slight rise in corn basis in the U.S. inland market indicates certain export demand remains stable.
Global Macroeconomic Data and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index and initial jobless claims to assess the macroeconomic impact on grain prices. With expectations for a delay in OPEC+ production increase plans strengthening, the crude oil market may further boost demand for soybean oil, indirectly supporting soybean prices. Furthermore, the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and non-farm payroll data are expected to impact the U.S. dollar index, thereby influencing grain market price trends. Market observers note that recent global demand is robust, but supply-side pressures and uncertainties in transportation costs may exacerbate grain market volatility.
