The actual annualized quarterly growth rate of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter was revised from the previous 2.8% to 3%, exceeding economists' expectations of 2.8%, showcasing greater resilience in the U.S. economy. Additionally, the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. decreased by 2,000 compared to the previous week, alleviating market concerns about an economic recession. As a result, the Dow Jones index closed higher overnight, and major European stock indices also surged.
Following the release of these economic data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled down. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 38% yesterday to 33%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has increased.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Barkin, a voting member for 2024, stated that although inflation has not yet reached the target, it has eased and is making progress towards the desired goal.
