Today's Focus: USD/JPY - June 4, 2024
Carry trade drives yen depreciation: The weakening of the yen and the strengthening of the dollar have increased the attractiveness of carry trade. This further boosts the returns from carry trades, and only unexpected positive fundamental news can break this vicious cycle for the yen.
Central bank policy differences: If this week's employment data further enhances rate cut expectations, the dollar's depreciation trend this week might push the yen towards a short-term appreciation trend.
Technical Analysis Highlights:
Stochastic Indicator: According to the 4-hour chart, the indicator above the 50 median line is sending a bearish signal, and it is about to enter the oversold area, suggesting strong short-term downward momentum. It is worth monitoring for potential short-selling opportunities.
Moving Average Support: Based on the daily chart, yesterday's price broke below the black support line at the 156.560 level. If the rebound does not exceed this price, it is highly likely to break below the red 33-day moving average, targeting the black 65-day moving average.
Pivot Indicator:
Intraday pivot level at 155.75,
Above 155.75, bullish outlook with the first target at 157.03 and the second target at 157.40
Below 155.75, bearish outlook with the first target at 155.13 and the second target at 154.75
