Index:
After the New Year, we saw five consecutive days of bearish sentiment, coinciding with technical factors (breaking the long-term trendline) and historical market behavior (weakness before the Spring Festival).
The ChiNext Index has been halved since its 2021 peak and is now back to 2019 levels, considering the new stock issuances in recent years, the actual decline is greater than it appears.
The policy bottom is already in place; we await the market bottom to align with index structure completion. How will this completion happen? Breaking below 2855 is the best choice.
At that point, monthly five-wave downtrend confirmation and weekly super-level bullish divergence will instill confidence in technical analysts. Breaking below 2855 points is highly likely to mark the beginning of a significant uptrend.
Monday's close at 2887 points is close; watch the market closely on Tuesday for potential surprises. This is the first bullish outlook post-holiday, hoping it continues.
Short-term Sentiment:
Changbai Mountain with 5 limit-up days in ice and snow tourism. Dalian Sainty with 4 limit-up days in ice and snow tourism. Oriental Zhongke with 4 limit-up days thanks to HarmonyOS. SiJin Intelligence with 3 limit-up days in consumer electronics.
Ice and snow tourism may face a potential correction as the tourism sector closes flat today, but there might be a rebound on Tuesday. After continuous declines in consumer electronics, it may resonate with index uptrend.
Therefore, Oriental Zhongke and SiJin Intelligence have a higher chance of advancing compared to the two ice and snow stocks.
This is a subjective assessment pre-market, specific decisions should be made based on market conditions. Short-term trading should avoid subjective speculation and follow market trends.
Sector Trends:
New Urbanization:
The best-performing sector today, featuring Leiao Planning, Yuanlin Shares, and Decai Shares, all hitting limit-up. The main reason for the rise is weekend news stimulation, coupled with a lack of other rising sectors, resulting in higher fund concentration. Small themes are best for short-term gains, while late stages might require profit-taking.
Tourism:
Aside from Changbai Mountain and Dalian Sainty in ice and snow tourism, other segments in the tourism sector didn't perform well. Recent discussions on tourism recovery are frequent, and it's analyzed daily; no further elaboration is needed.
Photovoltaics and Lithium Batteries:
Qingyuan shares, Yabo shares, and Jincheng shares hit limit-up. Industry bottoming and recovery may come in March, with January and February being the months for forward-looking fund positioning.
Stocks like Tibet Mining and Jiangte Motor mentioned earlier have already moved against the index's trend. This is similar to panel prices; while they were still falling, companies like TCL and BOE had already been rising for some time.
However, when panel prices were high, and products were in short supply, related stock prices had already peaked and declined.
High Dividend Yield:
China Shenhua saw a slight rise on Monday, with its market cap officially surpassing CATL. The market cap of old energy leaders surpassing that of new energy leaders reflects the intensity of the competition in the new energy sector in recent years.
China Ping An's dividend yield has also exceeded 6%, highlighting its investment value. With the recovery of consumption and the overall favorable environment, this year's economic growth is guaranteed.
On the one hand, there is improvement in the performance of related listed companies, with profit indications; on the other hand, their stock prices continue to hit new lows. How to proceed, I believe everyone has their own ideas.
Conclusion:
The index's direction seems to be in its final leg, and breaking below 2855 could trigger a significant market move. For short-term adjustments, consider allocating to consumer electronics and semiconductor stocks, betting on a rebound.
For medium to long-term positions, focus on blue-chip stocks, and consider oversold sectors like new energy and real estate."
