Regarding Gold:
Last night (August 14), the U.S. Department of Labor announced the July CPI year rate at 2.9%, below the expected value of 3.0%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The seasonally adjusted CPI month rate for July was 0.2%, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was recorded at 3.2%, consistent with expectations. The positive inflation report indicates that inflation is indeed receding.
The Federal Reserve remains very cautious about cutting interest rates. Some Fed officials have expressed a strong reluctance to reduce rates. However, Powell previously stated that a rate cut does not necessarily require waiting for inflation to fully return to 2%, but rather considering inflation, employment, and the overall economy. As PPI and CPI data are released consecutively, the probability of an interest rate cut, as expected by CME's "Fed Watch," continues to rise.
Technical Aspect: Gold has been oscillating upward over the past four months after a significant increase, with lows steadily rising. In the short term, it encountered a resistance and fell back at $2480 (Triple Top), warranting caution for a potential deep pullback.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Last week, the U.S. stock market experienced a "Black Monday." Although there has been a significant rebound in recent days, warnings of recession loom in the market. Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist at the well-known U.S. investment bank Stifel, stated that if the economy continues to slow and eventually enters a recession, a bear market is imminent. He predicts that by October this year, the S&P 500 index will fall to 5000 points, implying a drop of about 8% from its current level.
Last night, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released crude oil inventory data for the week ending August 9, showing an increase of 1.357 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 3.728 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels; strategic crude inventories recorded 69.4 million barrels, down from 73.6 million barrels previously, both bearish for oil prices.
Technical Aspect: Crude oil continued its pullback yesterday, breaking below the key support of $78. In the short term, there is no signal of a bottom, making it unwise to blindly go long. Watch for the bull-bear dividing line at $77.60 during the day.
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