Chicago soybean and corn futures prices fell again on Monday, reaching a four-year low, with soybeans dropping to $9.97-3/4 per bushel and corn declining to $3.93-3/4 per bushel. This price movement was influenced by the anticipated U.S. government report predicting a significant increase in American production, thereby spreading bearish sentiment in the market.
Meanwhile, wheat prices also fell, dropping over 1% to $5.37-1/4 per bushel. The market generally expects that cheap supplies from the Black Sea region will dominate Egypt's large tender for 3.8 million tons of wheat. A trader in Singapore noted that the corn and soybean markets are filled with bearish sentiment due to the anticipated increase in both U.S. and global supplies.
The market focus is also on the upcoming global agricultural supply and demand crop forecast report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is expected to show increased production of soybeans, corn, and wheat in the U.S. This could exacerbate the situation of global oversupply, while current demand remains weak.
In the wheat market, traders are closely watching the bids for Egypt's large wheat tender, expected to be announced later on Monday. A German trader stated that current prices in Russia and other Black Sea regions are very competitive, about $20 cheaper than Western Europe, likely giving them an advantage in this tender. However, Ukraine's wheat prices are even lower than Russia's, which might further boost Ukraine's grain exports. Nevertheless, the 270-day deferred payment offered by Russia's state-run grain supplier might deter some buyers.
Despite this, the fall in wheat prices is limited due to poor harvests in France and other parts of Europe. It is expected that due to ongoing rainfall, France's soft wheat production in 2024 will be 25% less than last year.
