Financial Calendar
May 10 (Friday) Data and Financial Events (Beijing Time)
07:50 Japan March Trade Account
14:00 UK Q1 GDP Annual Rate Revised Value
UK March Three-Month GDP Monthly Rate
UK March Manufacturing Output Monthly Rate
UK March Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Account
UK March Industrial Output Monthly Rate
19:30 European Central Bank publishes April Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
20:30 Canada April Employment Figures
21:00 Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman Speaks on Financial Stability Risks
22:00 US May One-Year Inflation Rate Expectations
US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value
May 11
01:00 US up to May 10 Weekly Total Oil Rig Count
01:30 Federal Reserve Board Member Barr Speaks
Market Review
On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 4 reached 231,000, marking a new high since August 2023. The increase in initial jobless claims larger than expected has reinforced market bets that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year. The US dollar index gave up all its gains during the session and turned negative, ultimately closing at 105.23.
Today's Focus
US Dollar Index: After reaching the 61.8% area yesterday and pulling back, the current focus is on the support at the 105 level. If the market does not break below this support area, it may rise again. In the short term, if it does not break the previous low, it can be treated as oscillating, paying attention to the prices entering the 104.9-105.1 area today for a potential rebound.
Euro to US Dollar: The short-term price has once again reached the 1.078-1.08 resistance area, and chasing longs above this level without an effective breakout should be approached with caution. Previous long positions from below can take profits accordingly, and today, pay attention to this area for a reversal signal, which could continue short opportunities.
British Pound to US Dollar: The short-term trend has moved away from the lower support zone, and the current price is in the middle of the range. For an upward continuation today, watch for resistance at the 1.258-1.26 area, and if it falls back, look for support at the 1.244-1.248 area. Short-term trading should aim to sell high and buy low.
US Dollar to Japanese Yen: After bouncing off the 155 area again, the short-term trend has shown a response, with the 155 area support remaining robust for observing continued upward momentum. Short-term resistance is at 156.3 and strong resistance at 158, with opportunities for short trades still in focus today.
Australian Dollar to US Dollar: Yesterday, a double bottom formation was observed around the 0.656-0.658 area, with short-term focus on testing the upper resistance at 0.665-0.667. If the short-term uptrend continues before reaching the resistance area, monitor the bullish continuation scenario. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term.
US Dollar to Canadian Dollar: After a decline to the 61.8% area, the price continued to fall, with short-term resistance at 1.376 remaining unchanged. The current price is near the 1.366 support area, so chasing shorts in the short term should be done with caution. The overall market continues to oscillate downward, and short positions can take profits as appropriate after reaching support.
Crude Oil: After reaching the AB=CD area, the price rebounded, with short-term attention on the prior breakout conversion area. After reaching the 80.5-81.5 area, look for opportunities for a reversal, and upon seeing signals of a minor top, continue to go short.
Gold: Chasing long positions cautiously in the short term as prices have risen relatively high. Today, pay attention to the resistance area where AB=CD completes, and be cautious about chasing longs before an effective breakout above 2360. For aggressive traders, watch for a potential short setup after a reversal signal in this area; conservative traders may wait for a pullback to go long.
S&P Index: After the breakout and retest, prices have continued to form a double bottom upward trend, with the bullish outlook remaining unchanged as long as prices do not break below 5165. The current minor support is between 5190-5200, focusing on a rebound from this area today for short-term long opportunities.
Bitcoin: The price continues to oscillate, bouncing above the 60000 mark yesterday. The short-term focus is on the resistance at the 64000 area. After reaching the 64000-65000 area and observing a reversal, continue to short, maintaining a strategy of selling high and buying low before breaking above the previous high.
